The media seem unable to deal with the systemic complexity encompassed in a large systems dynamics causal loop model as this recent article demonstrates. On the other hand, as we have known for some time from our 30+ years of teaching Systems diagramming techniques to Open University (UK) Systems students, a diagram produced as part of an inquiry/learning process is not the same as one used for communication purposes. Perhaps McChrystal fell into a common trap that some of our students do?
That said the US is unlikley to extract itself from Afghanistan unless it understands the systemic complexity and acts in relation to that understanding. This is much more than slick powerpoint presentations.
Hi Ray,
ReplyDeleteBear in mind, that slide is only version 3!
Ray - loved the slide for its illustration of how social considerations (e.g. tribal culture) and economic drivers (e.g. the profitability of narcotics growing) has such large bearings on desired outcomes. I found it interesting that in the map, the presumed desired outcomes relate to 'coalition priorities'. That in itself might be why they are not winning the war - coalition priorities may not align with Afghan priorities? But why let a good war come in the way of cultural, economic and social complexities.
ReplyDeleteNadeem