Brasilian Postcard 3:   Bonito and the Pantanal

 I have long wanted to make a visit to the Pantanal, one of the biggest wetland complexes in the world.  I can now say I have been there but only just.  We spent a week based at Bonito, which for reasons that are not really clear to me has become a centre for ecotourism - much of it Brasilian.  There seemed to be many star-struck young couples - perhaps honeymooners - intent on placing themsleves in almost every photo they took.   We stayed at the delightful  Hotel Pousada Aguas de Bonito and mixed quiet days with full days out and about, usually on a tour with a guide - mainly Portuguese speaking.

Bonito, in the south of Matto Grosso do Sol state is on a limestone plateau from which many of the tourism highlights derive.  But it is not the Pantanal!  Highlights around Bonito in ranked order were:

1. Swimming with fish in the Silver River (Rio da Prata) south east of Bonito; just as we were about to enter the water a Tapir plunged in ahead of us and swam past.  This was unusual - something our guides had not experienced before.  The water was crystal clear - the fish huge and varied and a delighful experience overall.  Over lunch (also good) we chatted with two German guys doing a six month motorbike trip around the south of South America - see their trip blog. If I were only a little younger!

2. Late afternoon on the same day we went to Buraco das Araras - a large sinkhole that is a major nesting site for macaws.  Our timing was perfect as macaws in significant numbers were flying back to roost whilst we were there.  They are impressive as they swoop in.

3. We had another good day - despite the rough roads - at Boca da Onca.  It is advertised as 11 water falls - see photos - with an 866 step climb to finish off.  Not much wildlife and wrong time of day for the birds but enjoyable none-the-less.

4. We had fun - including great water fights -  on a boat trip along the Formoso River

5. The blue lake cave (Gruta do Logo Azul) was worth seeing - but not a highlight. It is quite close to Bonito and can be done in half a day - as can the boat trip on the Formoso River (which flows into the Miranda River).

The best day for me was our trip to the Pantanal - Fazenda San Francisco.  From Bonito it was a long day - and made me realise that given another opportunity I would not base myself in Bonito to see the Pantanal - not that I regret seeing much of what Bonito had to offer.  I cannot remember spending a more enjoyable day in a long time - perhaps 30 new species of birds to see, deer, capybora etc. This was also a good example of how agriculture and ecotourism can be combined in a private enterprise activity, though I remain concerned that private enterprise alone cannot conserve all that demands conservation or protection.

New Systems Book by Rosalind Armson

At an event at the Open University (UK) office in London last night we had a celebratory launch of the new STiP (Systems Thinking in Practice) postgraduate programme along with the four new books co-published by the OU and Springer as part of the initiative.  The event was recorded so look out for a future Blog with links to the posted material.  A highlight of the night was a presentation by Helen Wilding who spoke from the perspective of someone who has studied both core courses in the new STiP programme and who has consequently engaged with all four books. 

As I have made earlier posts about these books  I will not say more here other than to say that in the first presentation of the courses which these books support they have all successfuly delivered on their design intentions.  The books are:

Systems Thinkers


 
 
Systems Approaches
 








Systems Practice  

Social Learning Systems

Rosalind Armson's new book was also launched having been published (by Triarchy Press) only that day.   Here is what the publishers have to say about this book:

The fifth of Peter Senge's disciplines was Systems Thinking. (I know you knew that). They say The Fifth Discipline sold more than a million copies. 

Triarchy authors John Seddon, Russ Ackoff, Bill Tate, Sally Bibb and Graham Leicester all harp on about Systems Thinking.
 

The result? A lot of people know Systems Thinking is a good thing but not many actually know how to do it. Which may be why we often get asked to recommend a practical guide to Systems Thinking. Now we can.

Rosalind Armson is a respected and experienced teacher of Systems Thinking. In her new book, Growing Wings on the Way: Systems Thinking in Messy Situations, she weaves together the professional and the personal benefits of being able to 'systems think' with her own case studies. Then she sets out the techniques that work best  in approaching 'messes' (with rules and practical advice on each one):

•  Escaping Mental Traps (History, Habit and Action Traps, Double Binds, Value Rigidity) 
•  Diagnosing with Multiple-Cause Diagrams
•  Drawing and using Rich Pictures and Influence Diagrams
•  Understanding messes with Systems Maps
•  Building Human-Activity System Diagrams
•  The 5Es (Efficacy, Efficiency, Effectiveness, Elegance, Ethics)
•  Viewing messes through an Understandascope

If you've ever had to face a mess (from running a national health service to a departmental reorganisation, a company merger or caring for your elderly mother) this book has everything you need to unravel it.

Whether you’re new to Systems Thinking or an old hand, the book helps you work with your own messy situations. It’s aimed at managers, team leaders, strategists, policy makers, students and people with mothers.



I have read Growing Wings and can unreservedly recommend it.  These five books constitute a major milestone and a synthesis of the Open University's systems teaching and scholarship since it began in the early 1970s. Former OU student and Systems consultant Mike Haynes, amongst others, has endorsed Rosalind's book.

“A Systems Thinking primer!  This easy-to-read book makes systems theory accessible to those who do not have time for intensive study but need help in structuring and solving complex problems… A resource masterpiece!”
Mike Haynes, Consultant

Rosalind Armson was, until last month, Senior Lecturer in Systems at the Open University. She has had a key role in Systems teaching and research in the UK and internationally and is widely respected for her grasp of the subject and her ability to communicate it.

As an independent consultant she has worked with banks, development agencies, energy providers, the voluntary sector, governments, health-care practitioners and many others.

She has delivered Systems Thinking workshops in the USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, UAE, South Africa and Europe.

Brasilian Postcard 2 - Ecotourism and the nature of nature

Ecotourism has been central to both weeks in Brasil.  And the experience overall has been a delight.  In the first week, along with a small group of Systems scholars, we explored different parts of the National Parks Aparados da Serra and Serra Geral accompanied by a young guide who, with a partner, had set up an ecotourism business.  As the week progressed several colleagues and I  began to be concerned about the praxis of guiding and the mental models that underpinned this praxis as well as the management of the parks complex.  It became clear that the dominant mental model was one of humans outside nature, the conservation of a pristine nature devoid of humans except as sensitive (controlled) voyeurs of the landscape.  The dominant practice of guiding was to relate the facts of the matter - not to engage with the situation.  Talking dominanted listening.

In the National Parks the mental model was one of conserving 'natural systems'; there was only limited place for agro-ecosystems.  Many people had been ejected from within the perimeters of the park and it appeared that a lot still awaited compensation from the State. Some examples of new agro-ecosystems development concerned with biodiversity managment and types of forest/crop permacultures were beginning to appear.  These had support from the Santa Caterina State extension service (EPAGRI), so perhaps the barriers between these mental models may break down over time.  The buildings for drying and curing tobacco - one of the main former crops - were common in the park as were bananas - both organic and non-organic. Experience in many parts of the world suggest that unless local people become stakeholders in the park and its governance then the social and ecological objectives will be hard to meet.

The araucaria forest on the plateau was particulalry spectacular.  This forest is clearly is in need of more extensive conservation and it is a shame, in the scheme of things that so much of the land bordering the parks has been turned over to cattle grazing on low quality tropical grass pastures.

Cattle are clearly built into the psyche of most rural inhabitants in this part of the world - they still provide draft power for small holders as well as being central to many sporting activities.

It was a challenge for most of us to be in the landscape - to listen and silence the internal voices - perhaps a 'pathology' of the now urbanised world we inhabit.

Brasilian Postcard 1 - 'diverse perceptions'

Brasil must be getting it right - they know how to keep bottled beer cold.  By a particular Australian standard this might be the height of cultural achievement.  Having just spent two weeks in Brasil I am left with a myriad of perceptions which undoubtedly say as much about me as they do about Brasil. Here are some.

• This is my third visit to Brasil since 2002 and now, more than before, it seems  important not to leave Brasil out of any discourse about emerging 21st century states i.e., China, India and Brasil need to be used in the same phrase.  Of course the development challenges remain enormous - as they are for China and India.  This came home to me in a particular way.  We spent one week based in Bonito and travelled out by mini-bus to different ecotourism destinations.  Many of these trips were on dirt roads (see photos). Four of these journies involved back-breaking travel over side-tracks.   Side tracks are those rough tracks which run alongside the main road when it is being prepared for surfacing with bitumen.  In the 1950s and 60s side tracks and dirt roads were very common in Australia.  These days most Australians, Europeans and Americans probably never encounter one.  They are symbolic of the massive public invstement that is being made, and still needs to be made, in transport infrastructure.  But with this form of development exploitation - possibly over exploitation - can quickly follow.
• The land cleared for soybeans, corn, sugarcane in Matto Grosso do Sul state is immense.   Brasil is now an integral part of the global grains trade with strong ties into China and Europe (supply) and the USA - signs for varities and chemicals from Dow, Cargill, Dekalb, Agremon etc litter the road from Campo Grande to the south. I am told that weeds that are Roundup resistant are already becoming a major issue in soybean production.  From a systems perspective this was to be expected.
• During my stay I had news of a BBC report about expansion of rainforest clearing in Matto Grosso - the state immediately north from where I was.  The report said:

'Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest has increased almost sixfold, new data suggests. Satellite images show deforestation increased from 103 sq km in March and April 2010 to 593 sq km (229 sq miles) in the same period of 2011, Brazil's space research institute says. Much of the destruction has been in Mato Grosso state, the centre of soya farming in Brazil.  The news comes shortly before a vote [in the Brasilian Parliament] on new forest protection rules.

Brazilian Environment Minister Izabella Teixeira said the figures were "alarming" and announced the setting up of a "crisis cabinet" in response to the news. "Our objective is to reduce deforestation by July," the minister told a news conference.'

• Whilst  meeting with colleagues from Santa Caterina in the National Parks Aparados da Serra and Serra Geral, another example of the systemic failure of public policies became apparent.  Brasil has legislation making it illegal to harvest and use native tree species (though as can be seen from the BBC report this is not really effective as all regulations require resources for enforcement and these are just not available).  But the policy is delivering other unintended consequences.  We learnt of people who would like to replant native species but because the legislation precludes them harvesting any of what they plant they instead turn to exotic Eucalyptus which sits outside the ban.  They can then selectively harvest the eucalyptus for personal use and income.
• One of the books I have been reading here in Brasil is  Tim Jackson's 'Prosperity Without Growth' (2009). In the context of Brasil - and elswhere he poses some big questions - but ones that need to be asked.  I do not feel optimistic.
• I am intrigued by the possible systemic implications of the rapid expansion of evangelical religion in Brasil.  A further decline of the Catholic church?  Release through diversity as in the UK in the 18th and 19th centuries?  A precursor to a largely atheistic state? In Bonito with about 20,000 people there were Assemblies of God and Assemblies of God (Primitive) churches plus at least five other evangelical variations.  The Catholic church was not apparent!  In Campo Grande (population about 800,000) there are five Morman churches and countless other evangelical denominations.
• Brasilian breakfasts are a delight.  So are the people - though it is hard going for English (only) speakers compared to some other countries. Of course the reverse is true as well - and people have been extremely polite and welcoming.
• Sohisticated schemes such as recycling - which is widespread and easy to use combine with a propensity for kitsch - as with the jaguar phone booth in the mainstreet of Bonito.

UK-based Systems Conferences and Events

Over the northern summer there are two Systems conferences being held in England and one event.   For anyone living in and around London or visiting on the 31st May you are cordially invited to a launch of our four new books prepared for the new MSc in Systems Thinking in Practice (STiP) programme at the Open University Office in London (Camden - see attached) from 6-8pm.  (Please note the RSVP).  The first conference is the ISSS conference at the University of Hull.   The second is the UKSS conference.   Details follow.

1. Official Launch of new suite of books for STiP Programme at OU - May 31st, London

For further background on STiP see my earlier posting.

2. ISSS
The 55th Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences will be held at Hull University Business School, Hull, UK from July 17-22, 2011.

Theme: All together now – working across disciplines: People, principles and practice

Important Dates

•  April 30, 2011: The end of early, discounted registration.
•  May 15, 2011: The deadline for full papers. Only ONE submission per registered participant will be accepted for the conference.
• June 1, 2011. The final deadline for abstracts, recognising that abstracts may not be developed into full papers for this conference. Only ONE abstract per registered participant will be accepted for the conference.
• June 1, 2011. The deadline for poster abstract submission. Posters are exempt from the one abstract/paper submission rule.

Special integration groups (SIGs) and exploratory sessions are being planned in the following areas (see the website for contact details for each group):
Agent-based Social Systems
Arts-based Inquiry
Balancing Individualism and Collectivism
Critical Systems Theory & Practice
Designing Educational Systems
Economic and Financial Systems
Evolutionary Development
Foundations of Information Systems
Hierarchy Theory  
Human Systems Inquiry
Information Systems Design and Information Technology
ISSS Roundtable   
Living Systems Analysis
Medical and Health Systems
Organizational Transformation and Social Change
Research Towards General Theories of Systems
Service Systems Science
Socio-Ecological Systems
Spirituality and Systems
Student SIG   
Systemic Approaches to Conflict and Crises
Systemic Approaches to Poverty and Disadvantage
Systems Applications in Business & Industry
Systems Biology and Evolution
Systems and Mental Health
Systems Modeling and Simulation
Systems Pathology
Systems Specific Technology
What is Life and Living

Social Programs
There will be a welcome reception on Sunday evening, July 17. The conference banquet will be held on Thursday, July 21.

The registration fee includes:
* The program/abstract book
* 2011 CD-ROM proceedings
* Reception on Sunday July 17
* ISSS membership fees for 2012
The registration fees also includes tea/coffee breaks and lunches from Monday to Thursday.

The registration fee does not cover accommodation or transportation expenses to and from the conference site.

Accommodation ranges from very well-appointed University rooms to mid- and upper-range hotels.

For further details please check the website  or contact isssoffice@dsl.pipex.com


3. UKSS

UK Systems Society Conference 2011

Thursday 1st ­ Friday 2nd September 2011 St Anne¹s College, University of Oxford

Call for Papers and Workshops & AGM announcement

Paper submission is open from now until 31 May 2011; Registration opens 21 March 2011

The Future of Systems Learning¹

Keynote Speakers:

Professor John Naughton, University of Cambridge (1st Sep.)

Dr. Martin Reynolds, Open University (2nd Sep.)

The Conference Committee invites contributions from Systems thinkers, whether academic or practitioners. Solicited contributions can be in the form of full papers, posters or proposals to organise a pre-event workshop. Particular topics of interest will include for this year, but are not restricted to, the following:

• Pedagogy of Systems and developing Systems skills
• The value of Systems learning for the individual, the organisation and society
• The professionalisation¹ of Systems practice: why, how, what, when
• Systems teaching and training case studies
• Linking Systems research and professional practice with teaching and learning
• Delivering Systems skills below Higher Education

Full papers are invited relating primarily to the areas outlined above. All submissions will be peer-reviewed by at least two members of the refereeing panel (in respect of academic works) or editorially reviewed by the general and programme chairs (in respect of accounts of Systems practice). Papers will be available in electronic format during the conference, and a small number of high-quality papers will be selected for publication to a special edition of the Society¹s official journal, the Systemist, to be published following the conference. Please note that eligibility for publication in this special issue will also depend upon at least one of the authors registering for and attending the Conference.

Contributors who do not wish to submit full papers can consider submitting posters. Posters will be displayed at special sessions during the conference.

The Committee also invites ideas for a half-day workshop with the intention of selecting one as a precursor to the main conference event. Attendance of the workshop will be charged additionally to the main event. The selected workshop facilitator will be awarded a complimentary place to attend the conference. Workshop topics may vary and can include introduction to particular Systems methods and techniques that are of interest to the Systems community, hands-on practical applications etc. If you intend to submit a bid for a workshop, please explain in a single A4 page the aim and learning objectives of your proposal, the intended format, any special requirements for equipment, facilities or software etc.

Conference Committee
Conference Chair:  Theo Tryfonas, University of Bristol, UK
Refereeing Panel Chair: John Davis, University of Bristol, UK
Refereeing Panel: Rick Adcock, Cranfield University, UK
Peter Bednar, University of Portsmouth, UK
Laurence Brooks, Brunel University, UK
Sarah Cornell, University of Bristol, UK
Jeremy Hilton, Cranfield University, UK
Ady James, UCL, UK
Maria Karyda, University of Aegean, GR
Vasilis Katos, Democritus University of Thrace, GR
Spyros Kokolakis, University of Aegean, GR
Laura Lacey, Cranfield University, UK
Neil McBride, De Montfort University, UK
Steve McIntosh, Cardiff University, UK
Steve Probert, Higher Education Academy, UK
Ian Roderick, Schumacher Institute, UK
Frank Stowell, University of Portsmouth, UK
Joanne Tippet, University of Manchester, UK
Christine Welch, University of Portsmouth, UK
Leroy White, University of Bristol, UK
Jennifer Wilby, University of Hull, UK
Mike Yearworth, University of Bristol, UK
Louise Yngstrom, Stockholm University, SE

Key Dates
Deadline for workshop proposals                   30 April 2011
Deadline for paper submission                        31 May 2011
Feedback to authors                                      30 June 2011
Registration opens                                          21 March 2011
Early bird period ends                                    30 June 2011

Submission Guidelines
Papers should be submitted electronically in Microsoft Word format using Times New Roman typeface and 12pt size. Major headings should be 14pt size. All figures and tables must be supplied in camera-ready format, within text and in a form that will still be legible if reduced by up to 50%. Papers should conform to the Harvard referencing standard to a maximum of one side of A4. A title page must be provided and should include the title of the paper, author name(s), affiliation, address and abstract of 100-150 words with a maximum of 5 relevant key words. Submission is via email to submissions@ukss.org.uk 

Printed poster dimensions should be no larger than A1 size and submitted electronically in .pdf, or .ppt format only to the same address as above submissions@ukss.org.uk  .

UKSS AGM 2011
During the conference the UK Systems Society¹s annual general meeting will take place as usual. This is scheduled for September 1st, 5pm at the conference venue.


For fees and other details contact  the organisers by emailing conference2011@ukss.org.uk or go to the web site.

St Anne¹s College is situated in the heart of the University town of Oxford, conveniently placed for rail and coach links and within walking distance of the City Centre. It is situated in 5 acres of pleasant grounds. Accommodation is in modern rooms with tea and coffee making facilities. All conference sessions are in rooms adjacent to the accommodation.

Listening - the 2011 ASC Conference

Ranulph Glanville,  President of The American Society for Cybernetics (ASC) writes to announce a conversational conference on the theme of

LISTENING
He says:

'We regard listening as the key act that turns talking into conversation. However, we use  these words metaphorically, and not just  literally: we do not mean to concentrate on the aural senses, but on the idea that it is the recipient who gives meaning to what they hear. This is how they release the potential in a statement made by another into conversation, whether the conversation is in words, acts, gestures, or  indeed any other medium of communication. This can lead to the development of understanding of the other so important in human relations (perhaps specially in fields such as psycho-therapy, management, education and music).

 Our conference is organised around informal and generous conversations in small groups, but has space for formal paper presentations and  performances. We are also inviting experiential workshops. The  conference itself will be held in Richmond, Indiana, USA, and begins in  the evening of 10 August and runs to the evening of 13 August 2001.  There is a sliding scale of charges. For those attending, there are free  add-on events before and after.
 
Please visit the conference web site.  Note, applicants for the conference need to fill in a statement of  interest (no more than a paragraph).

To get a sense of last year’s conference, please visit this web site.

We hope to welcome you to our conferences!'

Peter Senge Videos

Pegasus are now sellling the following two videos.  If anyone has looked at them  I would be interested in your feedback.

Senge on Leadership


View clip

In this powerfully engaging video, Peter Senge speaks in plain, straight-to-the-point language about crucial leadership issues facing all organizations as they work to create the results they really care about. From proposing alternative roles for leaders that go beyond the destructive hero-CEO myth to underscoring the central position of trust and relationships in collective endeavors, Senge zeros in on pivotal organizational challenges and points a way ahead for all who see themselves as leaders.

Senge on Change and Learning

View clip

In this gripping discussion, Peter Senge illuminates the crucial role of learning in any successful organizational change effort and helps us understand ways to get beyond frustrating barriers to learning. He underscores the importance of focusing on the human dimension in the workplace and the remarkable capacity of inspired people to work together in service of a larger goal. Perhaps most important, he dispels the illusion that leaders can spearhead organizational change without being ready to change themselves.

Reprieve for Mekong

Further to my last posting the meeting held yesterday deferred a decision to proceed with the Xayaburi Dam on the Mekong in Laos.  Apparently 'the Lao PDR proposed to proceed with the dam [whilst] Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam called for an extension to the decision-making process, citing concerns about transboundary impacts and knowledge gaps that require both further study and public consultation'. 

Along the Mekong - do we know what we do?

An article in today's Age reminds me of what I have not been thinking and writing about since my recent visit to Cambodia and Laos.  Why?  Well because it is just too damn depressing!  So what is happening along the Mekong?

"Today, the four countries that share the lower reaches of the Mekong River will announce whether they agree to the construction of a controversial dam that could forever alter the character and natural diversity of one of the world's longest and most bountiful rivers." (Thomas Fuller)

Please read Thomas Fuller's piece to explore why this is bad enough, but unfortunately there is more, much more.  The proposed Xayaburi Dam on the Mekong in Laos is only the tip of the veritable iceberg of intervention and exploitation in the vast Mekong river system.  This is a wicked, wicked problem if ever there was one!  A vast river system that underpins ecological processes and species lifecycles that we do not fully understand; six countries (China, Burma, Laos Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam) all concerned to develop...or exploit their 'own' natural resources and despite a Mekong River Commission as Fuller notes, "all four countries retain.. the right to build dams with or without agreement by neighbouring countries."

 

Whilst in Laos amongst water engineers and policy advisers I had figures quoted to me of 1.5 million people's livelihoods being threatened by dams in the Mekong-fed Tonle Sap lake system in Cambodia.  In all hundreds of dams and diversions are on the drawing board for the Mekong and its tributaries.  

 

There are of course groups trying to work with key stakeholders to avoid catastrophe, groups like M-Power. If ever there was a context calling out for systemic and adpative water governance this is it. 

Not convinced by my earlier post ....read about why radiation is bad

In my earlier posting I outlined a series of systemic arguments as to why George Monbiot had missed the point ...as have all those other nuclear apologists. The following day Peter Karamoskos had a well written article published in The Age as to why radiation is bad and refuting some of George Monbiot's main arguments.  This is what Peter had to say:

"With the 25th anniversary of Chernobyl looming, the pro-nuclear lobby is in overdrive.
You have to hand it to the nuclear industry and its acolytes. In the middle of the second-worst nuclear power disaster in history at Fukushima, and with still no end in sight, you would think they would respond with contrition, humility and profuse mea culpas. Not on your life. The industry representatives and its acolytes came out swinging in full denial attire.

Ziggy Switkowski, former chair of ANSTO (Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation) and a proponent of nuclear power for Australia, claimed "the best place to be whenever there's an earthquake is at the perimeter of a nuclear plant because they are designed so well", and then quickly added: "On the other hand, you know, if the engineers do lose control of the core, then the answer becomes different."

Strident nuclear advocate Professor Barry Brook gave assurances in his running commentary that seemed ironically prescient of what was about to happen, stating ''I don't see the ramifications of this as damaging at all to nuclear power's prospects'' and that ''it will provide a great conversation starter for talking intelligently to people about nuclear safety''.

  

Other arguments trotted out by pro-nuclearists about how safe nuclear power is demonstrated their chutzpah more than their good judgment. My favourite: the justification for nuclear power is that it kills fewer people than the coal industry. Ignoring the false choice this proposition entails, what does it say about the safety culture of the nuclear industry when one of its selling points is that it kills fewer people than the competition?

But more insidious and objectionable is the creeping misinformation that the nuclear industry has fed into the public sphere over the years. There seems to be a never-ending cabal of paid industry scientific ''consultants'' who are more than willing to state the fringe view that low doses of ionising radiation do not cause cancer and, indeed, that low doses are actually good for you and lessen the incidence of cancer. Canadian Dr Doug Boreham has been on numerous sponsored tours of Australia by Toro Energy, a junior uranium explorer, expounding the view that "low-dose radiation is like getting a suntan". Toro must have liked what it heard because it made him a safety consultant for the company in 2009.

Ionising radiation is a known carcinogen. This is based on almost 100 years of cumulative research including 60 years of follow-up of the Japanese atom bomb survivors. The International Agency for Research in Cancer (IARC, linked to the World Health Organisation) classifies it as a Class 1 carcinogen, the highest classification indicative of certainty of its carcinogenic effects.

In 2006, the US National Academy of Sciences released its Biological Effects of Ionising Radiation (VII) report, which focused on the health effects of radiation doses at below 100 millisieverts. This was a consensus review that assessed the world's scientific literature on the subject at that time. It concluded: ". . . there is a linear dose-response relationship between exposure to ionising radiation and the development of solid cancers in humans. It is unlikely that there is a threshold below which cancers are not induced."
The most comprehensive study of nuclear workers by the IARC, involving 600,000 workers exposed to an average cumulative dose of 19mSv, showed a cancer risk consistent with that of the A-bomb survivors.

April 26 marks the 25th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster. The pro-nuclearists have gone into full-spin-ahead mode, misrepresenting the latest UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation) report on Chernobyl.

Two days ago on this page, George Monbiot (''How the anti-nuclear lobby misled us all with dodgy claims''), citing the report, wrongly plays down he death toll. He correctly states that the report found 6848 cases of thyroid cancer in children, although he fails to acknowledge it was due to the effects of radioactive iodine in the nuclear fallout. The number of cases will continue to increase, according to the US National Cancer Institute, for a further 10 to 20 years.

Thyroid cancer is easy to detect because it is normally a rare cancer. Most other cancers caused by radiation are not that easy to detect above the high background natural rates of cancer. It is the proverbial needle in a haystack scenario - but in this case the needles (radiation-induced cancer) look the same as the hay (other cancers). What the report therefore said was that statistical limitations and large uncertainties precluded being able to single out any radiation-induced cancers. It did not say there have been no cancers, as Monbiot and others claim, or that none will develop, only that it is not possible at this stage to detect them.

IARC states that ''by 2065, predictions based on these models indicate that about 16,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident and that about 16,000 deaths from these cancers may occur''. Whether we will be able to detect them when there will also be more than 1 million other cases of cancer over this period is debatable. But every one of these excess cancers is a tragedy for each victim and their family, and is no less so simply because cancer is a common disease.

George Monbiot should read properly the BEIR VII report that Helen Caldicott gave him - all 423 pages."

Listening - a great focus for the 2011 ASC conference

ASC President Ranulph Glanville and host Larry Richards advise that the ASC 'summer conference, planned to consist of a central three day event and pre- and post-conference events, will be on the theme of "Listening" following the success of this format at the 2010 Troy conference.

It will be held August 9 - 15, 2011, in Richmond, Indiana, with the main conference beginning Wednesday evening with a reception and performance and ending Saturday evening with a conference dinner and guest speaker. The theme is "Listening" and current details are available at the conference web site: http://www.asc-cybernetics.org/2011. There will also be some pre-conference sessions and a post-conference study session.

George Monbiot has lost it - at least his systemic awareness!

George coming out in support of nuclear was I thought the last straw.  It has been hard to take the myriad nuclear apologists who blythly contend that post-Japan it will be business as usual on the pathway to uranium enriched nirvana!  So many folk just do not get it from a systemic perspective - yet others see the systemic implications clearly so why not George?  The reasons we should not proceed are of course multi-faceted and not amenable to systematic (compared to systemic) explication.  But lets try.  Firstly how the issue is framed needs attention and choice.  I find framings that are technological, or economic as a starting point totally inadequate. Let's start by framing nuclear fuel expansion as a social, particularly governance, issue with many of the characteristics Rittel and Webber attributed to 'wicked problems'. Framed in this way a set of systemic issues are readily apparent associated with how risk is perceived and managed, how corporate power is unaccountable in Japan (and elsewhere), how capability to act in the face of surprise and breakdown is inadequate, how slow the national and international response has been and how poorly coordinated it seems, and perhaps worst of all, how the nuclear issue undermines, through loss of attention and resources, the humanitarian  response to the needs of victims of the tsunami.  There is no technological fix for the failure of human institutions and the goverence regimes they support and in all of our planning we should make allowance for this inescapable 'truth'.

These and other thoughts have been my companion as I listen to the BBC, read my paper or talk to colleagues.  What are some of the issues ...in no particular order: (i) investment in nuclear will soak up important capital that is better invested elsewhere; (ii) in chasing a nuclear holy grail we admit to a business as usual energy future, rather then reshaping or transforming our energy future; (iii) uranium mining and nuclear power plants are all heavily dependent on water - thus mines are over exploiting and contaminating groundwater resources and/or requiring investment in energy demanding desalination plants. Generating plants will also have to be located near urban areas as well and near water sources; (iv) the Earth is ulitimately a moving, changing set of materials in process - thus long-term waste storage is ultimately never safe; (v) the total supply of uranium is not that great, etc - see Ian Lowe's Quarterly Essay for further background.

Today at least my breakfast, as I read my Sunday Age, was not accompanied by indigestion and indignation. Thank heavens for John Vidal.  In his article John, who has visited Chernobyl argues that:

"It was grim. We went from hospital to hospital and from one contaminated village to another. We found deformed and genetically mutated babies in the wards; pitifully sick children in the homes; adolescents with stunted growth and dwarf torsos; foetuses without thighs or fingers and villagers who told us every member of their family was sick." 

Vidal's timely and compelling piece highlights what the nuclear apologists fail to acknowledge - that we pursue this technology at our peril because, ultimately, we are not capable of managing it - it will forever surprise us in ways that will continue to undermine the quality of life of all - through the harm we do each other and future generations through accident, war, terror or plain old fear, our impacts on other species and thus, ultimately, what it means to be human.

Reframing poverty and where it is

This article by Andy Sumner (The new bottom billion) makes a good case for reframing the way we consider poverty and its distribution.  An emergent issue from the analysis is that it brings into focus growing income inequlity in all nation states.  Different framings require different policies and actions.  As Sumner argues:

'The new bottom billion has reshaped the demographics of poverty. This calls for a renewed development narrative, one that focuses on inequality and shared responsibility.'

Joining up the dots on climate change - yet still contested

I was impressed by the article by Age journalist Adam Morton which joins up 'many of the dots' in an accessible way that allows a reading of what is happening across the globe on the weather front.  For example Morton writes:


'"The climate is changing," the National Climatic Data Centre's Jay Lawrimore told the paper. "Extreme events are occurring with greater frequency, and in many cases with greater intensity."

Munich Re reported that its database of natural catastrophes showed the number of extreme weather events such as windstorms and floods had tripled since 1980 "and the trend is expected to persist".
Not everyone working in the area is comfortable with linking the current shift in extreme events with greenhouse gases. There is disagreement in the scientific literature over whether extreme weather disasters have started to worsen.'

Scepticism remains strong, however meaning that this year is likely to be difficult politically in Australia in terms of achieving a price on carbon.   The Independents and Greens together ought to manage to tip the balance in transitioning towards a post-carbon society, after all it is more than climate change per se.

Ecosystem Services: Pricing to Peddle?

This article by Brian Czech raises some timely, systemic issues concerning ecosystems services. I recommend some of the follow-up postings as well e.g. David Bean.

'On November 15, five nations issued a complaint about a UN initiative called the “Global Green New Deal.”  These nations claim that “nature is seen [by the UN] as ‘capital’ for producing tradable environmental goods and services.”  They express their concern about the “privatization and the mercantilization of nature through the development of markets for environmental services.”   They also declare their “condemnation of unsustainable models of economic growth.”

For the purposes of this week’s Daly News, it matters little who these nations are, nor does it matter if their interpretation of the Green New Deal is completely accurate.  What does matter is that their complaint ripens our attention to a widespread and growing controversy about the implications of valuing ecosystem services.

The good news from the Green New Deal is that ecological microeconomics (such as valuing ecosystem services) has risen from the recesses of academia into the realm of international diplomacy.  The bad news is that ecological macroeconomics (such as limits to growth) apparently has not.  Let’s take a look at the implications.

The primary distinction of ecological economics, in contrast with conventional or “neoclassical” economics, is that ecological economists recognize limits to growth and a fundamental trade-off between economic growth and environmental protection.  The economic pie can only get so big even if all its pieces are correctly priced, including ecosystem services.  Because the economic pie can only get so big, society must also pay greater attention to fairly distributing the pieces.  In order to protect the environment, and to help allocate resources in the fairest manner, it helps to recognize the economic value of ecosystem services.  That’s what ecological microeconomics is all about; estimating the value of natural capital and ecosystem services.

In mainstream economic circles, on the other hand, limits to growth are seen as nonexistent or too far off to worry about.  That leads to a nonchalant attitude about fairness; just grow the economy because a “rising tide lifts all boats.”  Traditional economists don’t mind valuing ecosystem services, however.  As long as the prices are right, and markets are established, ecosystem services can be allocated efficiently, just like steel and milk into guns and butter.

The valuation of ecosystem services provides some common ground for neoclassical and ecological economics.  That should be a good thing.  However, common ground can be a minefield, too.  Many a well-meaning bureaucrat and diplomat are stumbling toward the landmines.

Perhaps the two most common concerns about valuing ecosystem services are:  1)  Many ecosystem services are beyond the ability of humans to estimate the value of, much less to “price” for the market.  “Value of the ozone layer?  Priceless.”  2)  The valuing of ecosystem services begs a market, then monetization of the services such that they are viewed as commodities to be traded like hogs or hoola hoops.  For many cultures this offends the senses of dignity and harmony with the natural world.  “Would you take 40,000 hogs for the climate regulation provided by that forest over there?”

But my concern is with another problem; namely, our inattention to where the money comes from to pay for services such as water filtration, carbon sequestration, pollination, etc.  There seems to be an attitude that, if we just throw enough money at a problem, we’ll solve it.  And that is precisely the attitude that creeps in when ecological microeconomics is not complemented with a healthy dose of ecological macroeconomics.  Markets convey the idea that you can have as much as you want as long as you pay the right price; ecological macroeconomics says the total is limited and the right market price should simply ration the limited total. And if the total is not limited then it is hard for the price to be “right”.

We especially need more awareness of the trophic origins of money.  Money doesn’t grow on trees, but it does come from the ground in a very real sense.  The amount of money available for the purchasing of guns, butter, hogs or carbon sequestration originates from the agricultural and extractive surplus that frees the hands for the division of labor.

In other words, it is not the ozone layer that “generates” money for throwing at its priceless service.  Nor does the North Pole “generate” the money for ecotourists to witness it.  What generates money is activity on the ground – on the farm, in the forest, in the fishery – that gives everyone else their food, as well as the materials for their clothing and shelter.  Everyone else is then free to work in the manufacturing or service sectors.  With plenty of surplus, the economy can even support bankers, actors, and financial engineers who set up markets for trading carbon permits.  That’s the trophic structure of the human economy.

The more our farmers, loggers, and fishermen produce, the more money we’ll all have for the bank, the movies, and trading in biodiversity credits.  But of course the more we ask them to produce, the more environmental impact we’ll have.  If you insist on growing the economy and protecting the environment, eventually the bank and the theatre will be empty; your money’s going straight to the ecosystem services market.  It’s like robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Now consider the other side of the coin, so to speak.  We often hear about the investment in the Catskill Mountains watershed that provides clean water to New York City.  I’m all for it!  But it’s no example of reconciling the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.  What do the growthers think they’re going to do in that watershed:  open hog farms and build high-rises?  No, by “investing” in that natural capital a decision was made to keep the land relatively free from intensive economic activity.  That’s not the kind of investment they like to hear about in New York City, at least not on Wall Street.

So I’ll stop short of saying, “Let’s encourage all the ecological microeconomics we can get.”  Let’s encourage some of it, while realizing that there are only so many ecological economists to go around.  Let’s encourage far more study and practice of ecological macroeconomics.  With microeconomics, let’s help to demonstrate what’s at stake when we mine an aquifer or pull up a fishery.  But more importantly, let’s not peddle those ecosystem services like they’re rubber boots.  Remember where the money comes from to pay for them: the liquidation of natural capital stocks somewhere else.  That’s ecological macroeconomics, and that leads to a steady state economy where some of those precious ecosystem services stay where they belong: out of the market.'

Snow in Scotland - more systemic effects

Drennan writes:  'By the way, regarding systemic effects of the snow, here are a few more.

1) We all need food supplies etc but of course the big stores are all operating on the "Just  in Time" system - which  means a delay of a day or so means the stores start running out of food.

2) People hear about this difficulty on the news and so they buy twice as much as usual to "stock up" - except for the indigenous rural Scots who stock up at the start of November every year - and the result is the shops empty quicker.

3) This is all made worse by the fact that the TESCOs and ASDAs have outcompeted the small town centre bakeries etc which have often closed.  The TESCOs etc of course buy in bulk from bulk producers and hence the great majority of the bread eaten in Scotland is all made in three huge bakeries near Glasgow.

4) However, once an articulated lorry delivering supplies jack-knifes on a  motorway, huge traffic jams build up behind it and breakdown vehicles or road gritters that would make the road driveable can not get through. A few of these and the whole system jams up! We have of course developed a delivery system largely dependent on just in time deliveries by large lorries, and business based mainly on car commuting workers who get caught in the snarlups.

5) This of course means tankers cannot reach the main oil refinery, which means that petrol stations start running out of fuel for sale, which means even those that can move to deliver may run out of fuel.

6) In the meantime, amid the political blame game that is going on, the first minister for Scotland announces that we will have to get used to more such extreme weather conditions in Scotland - enter Climate Change.

All the best - it is thawing now but forecast to freeze up by Monday'

News from Scotland

A report from my friend Drennan.   The systemic effects are readily apparent!

'Just to let you see we are buried in it here. We have about one metre with plenty freeze thaw cycles to create icy roads, huge icicles hanging from buildings and traffic chaos. The central belt of Scotland was caught completely off guard and ended up with miles of motorway filled with hundreds of cars filled with people overnighting in them at -17 degrees centigrade. My sister .. ended up marooned at her daughter's house and her daughter marooned at her mother's house after abandoning her car on the motorway and walking miles overland to a functioning railway station to get some transport.

Meanwhile, we have been going down to -20 centigrade at night. A thaw is forecast but I hope to goodness it is a slow one or here come the floods!  This could be a long hard winter here. It is only the start of December,
the volcanic explosion in Iceland has created a dust layer, the Gulf  Stream (North Atlantic Drift) has weakened, and El Nino  is doing things that encourage a cold season also.

The last broadcaster who referred to a Winter Wonderland  has been strangled and another was taken to the edge of the village and snowballed to death.

We stay at home and drive nowhere. We couldn't go many places. All the hill passes seem to be permanently blocked. Nobody has any winter tyres for sale - they all went to Germany. Hope all goes well with all of you.'

Effective use of Systems in policy review and development

The Munro Review of Child Protection in England by Professor Eileen Munro of  LSE  has released a first report entitled: 'A Systems Analysis'.   It is recommended reading for anyone interested to see how good systems thinking and practice can help to frame and structure an important inquiry such as this one.  It also highlights the role that Systems capability can play in formulating public policy and effecting good governance.  David Lane, Reader in Management Science at LSE is providing expertise in Systems in support of the review.

In introducing this report Prof. Munro describes how it: 

'sets out the systems approach I am taking to understand how reforms interact and the effect these interactions are having on practice. It is at the front line where they come together, at present creating an imbalance and distortion of practice priorities.'

In outlining the report's approach to Systems is argued that:

'A systems approach will help this review to avoid looking at parts of the child protection system in isolation, and to analyse how the system functions as a whole. Social workers and other professionals accept many previous reforms were well intended but their interaction and cumulative effect on frontline practice have had unintended consequences. A systems approach will help to understand how and why previous reforms have had both beneficial and adverse consequences and how the review might improve how the system supports social workers and other professionals to protect children and young people better in the future.

The review will use systems theory in two ways. First, the review will look back at past reforms to explain what has happened, with systems theory providing a strong basis to build the review’s understanding. Second, the intention is to use systems theory analysis to look forward – with systems theory helping the review design an improved approach. The first leads naturally to the second since what is needed is a stronger understanding of the system and analysis of how aspects of the system interact with each other before the review recommends any further changes.'

For more background see this clip or this article. 

This Is Your Brain on Metaphors

My friend Bruce, in the middle of reading my book, has kindly alerted me to this article by Robert Sapolsky.  Here is a sample:

'This neural confusion about the literal versus the metaphorical gives symbols enormous power, including the power to make peace. The political scientist and game theorist Robert Axelrod of the University of Michigan has emphasized this point in thinking about conflict resolution. For example, in a world of sheer rationality where the brain didn’t confuse reality with symbols, bringing peace to Israel and Palestine would revolve around things like water rights, placement of borders, and the extent of militarization allowed to Palestinian police. Instead, argues Axelrod, “mutual symbolic concessions” of no material benefit will ultimately make all the difference.'

Follow-up from this year's ASC conference

News about this year’s conference.
•    Judy Lombardi made a slide show of the conference;
•    Lev Ledit, with Judy Lombardi, made a 35 minute movie from the video material recorded during the event;
•    You may like to hear Ernst von Glasersfeld’s after dinner speech, which formed a theme in Lev’s movie.

Of course, you are still welcome to explore the whole site. It is very rich, and still being added to!
Meanwhile, we are working on proceedings which will be published next year in a double volume of Kybernetes. There are also reviews of the conference: Claudia Westermann’s will appear in Leonardo—the Arts and Science Journal—on line in November (and may also appear in hard copy); and 2 reviews, one by Stuart Umpleby and the other by Michael Hohl and Stefan Wiltschnig will appear together in issue 1 of Kybernetes in 2011. Finally, ASC President Raulph Glanville has written an assessment that will appear in Cybernetics and Human Knowing, as the ASC column, by the end of the year, together with the text of Ernst’s talk.  urls will be posted on the conference site, when they are available.